By Paddy Manning
FARM exports will grow 6 per cent in 2011-12 to a nominal record $34.5 billion, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, but analysts say the figures could be optimistic given recent rains and softer prices this season.
ABARES's December quarter agricultural commodities forecasts issued yesterday show in real terms this year's farm exports were the second highest since 2002-03.
In 2011-12 dollars, farm exports peaked at $42.5 billion in 2001-02, fell to $36 billion in 2002-03, bottomed at $30.9 billion in 2007-08 and rose to $34.9 billion in 2008-09. They dropped sharply the following year before rising strongly in 2010-11 and the current year.
The CBA analyst Luke Matthews said the ABARES figures confirmed that agricultural production in 2011-12 would be ''exceptionally strong'', both in terms of the winter crop now being harvested and the summer crops about to be planted, which would be supported by high irrigation dam levels.
''The current rainfall is actually providing a very supportive environment for livestock - it's not all bad news,'' Mr Matthews said.
But Malcolm Bartholomaeus, a senior commodities analyst with Profarmer Grain, said ABARES was ''expecting a record wheat crop, with less to be downgraded than last year'', despite recent rains.
''What they're missing is the price for good-quality wheat is actually lower this year than the price growers were getting for feed-quality wheat last year. The same is true of most other grains. They might be being a bit optimistic on export earnings.''
Mr Bartholomaeus said ABARES's December quarter crop report had to bring estimates in line with higher Bureau of Statistics estimates and described it as ''a shambles''.
''They added so much to their old season estimates and new season estimates that it contributed significantly to the global balance sheet.
''That continues to undermine US futures markets.''
Peter Collins, ABARES's manager of agricultural trade, did not comment on the revised estimates but said the bureau had taken into account recent bad weather - up until last Friday - and likely downgrades to crop value.
Live cattle exports were forecast to fall by 31 per cent to 500,000 head in 2011-12 as a hangover from the ban on exports to Indonesia. The ban was lifted in July, Mr Collins said it would take time for exports to ramp back up.